Best Picture
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Analysis: Due to the overwhelming support the film has received since Ben Affleck's snub heard around the world, Argo is the one to beat. Since the ridiculous controversy surrounding Zero Dark Thirty has knocked that film out of contention, Lincoln looks to be the only film standing in its way. My choice would be Silver Linings Playbook, but I'm a sucker for romance over military dramas, no matter the disparity of quality.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis Lincoln
Denzel Washington Flight
Hugh Jackman Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix The Master
Analysis: So many superlatives have been heaped on Lewis, he is THE only contender in this race. The others should just be happy to have been invited to the party to enjoy Lewis's speech, which if the many he has given throughout the long awards season are any indication, promises to be humble, charming, and worthy of the man he played.
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain Zero Dark Thirty
Emmanuelle Riva Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts The Impossible
Analysis: I'm giving the edge to JLaw, although I don't know how much wishful thinking is playing into it. Other that Wallis, who was in diapers only a few years ago, the other actresses are definite possibilities. The Impossible was seen by too few, but Watts has earned a lot of respect in Hollywood. Chastain, who was a contender early on, seems to be one of the victims of the torture controversy surrounding her film. Riva is Lawrence's most formidable competition--she's old and this may be the Academy's last chance to honor her, while Lawrence will have many more chances to go to the podium. Still, a JLaw acceptance speech would undoubtedly be one of the most memorably loony speeches in Oscar history and she deserves it.
Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln
Alan Arkin Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman The Master
Robert DeNiro Silver Linings Playbook
Christoph Waltz Django Unchained
Analysis: It's tempting to go with Jones who would seem to be a lock for Lincoln. However, I'm making an outside-the-box choice and going with DeNiro. He's respected, but has been toiling in mostly dreck for the past two decades, starring in such "award" winners as The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle and Meet the Fockers. This would be a golden affirmation of his talents and Hollywood loves a comeback kid. Waltz is an outside possibility, but his film is too polarizing. Hoffman and Arkin are terrific, but not even the highlights of their own films.
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway Les Miserables
Sally Field Lincoln
Jacki Weaver Silver Linings Playbook
Amy Adams The Master
Helen Hunt The Sessions
Analysis: This is a two-woman race between two of the perkiest contenders for decidedly unperky roles--Gidget herself, Sally Field, and Gidget wannabe, Anne Hathaway. While I have hated all of Hathaway's speeches throughout this awards season, would she really be any less annoying than Field, who gave the infamous, "You like me. You really, really like me" speech? It's Hathaway's to lose, but Field has a slim outside chance to swoop in like the Flying Nun and take the "dream" away.
Best Director
Michael Haneke Amour
Ang Lee Life of Pi
David O. Russell Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin Beasts of the Southern Wild
Analysis: With Affleck out, Spielberg will most likely emerge the president of this category. His only competition is Lee, who received an Oscar for Brokeback Mountain even though that film was robbed of best picture by the mind numbingly awful Crash. Life of Pi is an international hit, grossing nearly an astounding $600 million worldwide and much of the film's success has been credited to Lee's vision.
With an unpredictable host in Seth McFarlane, a nod to movie musicals, and live performances by Jennifer Hudson, Barbra Streisand and Adele, this promises to be one of the most entertaining telecasts in recent history. I'll be watching the champagne flow and the Golden boys go with pizza, beer, and rainbow tears cheering as Hollywood celebrates its own on the most glamorous night of the year.
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